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An Analysis of the Scenario of China's Invasion of Taiwan and Implications for South Korea-U.S.-Japan Security Cooperation (박기철, 국방부)



A Korean version of the Indo-Pacific Strategy was announced by the Yoon Seok-yeol administration in December 2022, titled “the Indo-Pacific Strategy for Freedom, Peace, and Prosperity.” South Korea, as a pivotal country in the world, wants to project values of liberalism and solidarity into the Indo-Pacific region, presenting liberal democracy, rule of law, and human rights as universal values, aiming for a prosperous Indo-Pacific region and building trust among its people. In South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy, three major principles of reciprocity were outlined. This is in line with the Biden administration's “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and contains a strategy to strengthen security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, a core value alliance in Northeast Asia. In January 2023, the Center for International Strategic Studies (CSIS), a U.S. defense think tank, announced the results of a war game. Unlike previous studies that focused on the analysis of engagement and qualitative analysis of small tactical unit echelons, CSIS conducted this war game this time in order to analyze theater operations quantitatively both on a strategic and operational level and provide insight into war-related trends and aspects. The focus of my paper is to investigate the impact of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan on the security of the Korean Peninsula, and to explore the reasons why and how cooperation between Korea, Japan, and the U.S. could enhance security in the region. Specifically, I will use a wargame simulation to demonstrate the importance of triangular security cooperation between these three countries.

Key Words: China’s Invasion of Taiwan, War Game Scenario, ROK-US-Japan Security Cooperation


대한민국 국방부